In June 2024, Mexicans will go to the polls to renew, among other positions, that of President.
There are many challenges that the head of the new administration will face, whether it is Claudia Sheinbaum or Xóchitl Gálvez, who as of today are the most serious contenders. Whoever wins, one thing is certain: the relationship with the Armed Forces will be one of the most strategic aspects after taking office in October of that year. Never before has a woman held that position, let alone in the midst of such a momentous time in our Nation’s history.
It is true that, as historians say, every generation feels part of a “historical process,” but I am one of those who believes that Mexico actually is experiencing a truly significant transformation, perhaps comparable to the years following the civil war of 1910, which we mistakenly call the “revolution.”
In this process of profound change, two completely divergent and exclusive visions of the country clash. On one hand, there are those who believe that the state should have a predominant role in the country’s economy and even in dictating personal morality. For this group, recent Mexican history proves that, in the interest of the nation, some institutions are inconsequential and perhaps even an obstacle to progress. The idea of the enemy is “external”: the foreigner, the conservative, or the imperialist. In practice, anyone who does not align with the official narrative is an adversary to be defeated.
In stark contrast to this vision are those who believe that the country has not yet consolidated its institutional democratic progress, and therefore, it is essential to safeguard these institutions from potential destruction. The enemy is perceived as internal, that is, as part of the political-economic framework entrenched in the state for decades. For this group, Mexico cannot become a developed liberal democracy unless it overcomes this sort of “moral statism”, which refuses to die.
And these two groups will face off -with all of its symbols and narratives- in the 2024 electoral process.
Unfortunately, few institutions in Mexico can withstand the political and ideological onslaught of the current elite. Among those institutions that have been resilient, or perhaps antifragile in Nassim Taleb’s logic, are the Armed Forces. It can be said that, with greater or lesser success, the Air Force, Army, and Navy have been able to maintain a certain degree of institutional functionality based on a sense of service to the homeland, away from public ridicule and, yes, scrutiny.
But this civil-military arrangement began to crack in recent years. It would be difficult to know when this process started, as some believe it began in 2019, while others think the disruption’s seeds were sown years earlier, when the opposition came to power for the first time in 2000.
In any case, what is truly strategic is not what has happened until now, which is undoubtedly important, but what may occur after the 2024 election and the clash between the two opposing visions I mentioned earlier.
If the current political group wins the elections, I foresee that the Armed Forces will continue to blur between countless missions far from their true military ethos. Conventional defense capabilities, already reduced to a minimum, will remain outside of the priorities, concentrating human and material resources on public security tasks. In a few years, we will have Armed Forces with historic budgets – they already have them – but where the bulk of these resources will not focus on modernizing their doctrine or defense capabilities.
If, on the other hand, the other political group emerges victorious, the possibility of proposing a defense policy where the Armed Forces reinvest in modern conventional capabilities, actively participate in international missions, and, in a few words, consolidate themselves as an instrument of foreign policy contributing to international security could be reopened.
However, this group also faces a serious problem: within it, there are not many specialists who understand the role of the Armed Forces, and, it must be said, there are many prejudices stemming from myths and misunderstandings. If this group comes to power in 2024, they will have the difficult task of strategically assessing the role of the three Armed Forces in the 21st century… or they could fall into the inertia of leaving things as they are, not understanding the complexity of our defense structure, historical doctrine, and Mexican military culture as a whole.
For the good of our Country, it is in no one’s interest for the Armed Forces to become a battleground for political groups.
Whoever wins in 2024, and I say this seriously, would do well to remember that the Armed Forces are permanent institutions of the Mexican State, beyond political affinities and biases.
Governments will come and go, but the Armed Forces will remain.
It is in the best interest of Mexicans to safeguard them.
Translation with ChatGPT.
Defensa - Estrategia - Geopolítica 